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Current fully staked APY based on statistics

#1

Presently there are 256 validators selected for each epoch out of 2549. This means you have a 10.04% chance of getting selected for any given epoch provided you are not in a waiting period. There is a waiting period of 2 epoch if you are selected, so this means that you can only earn at most once every 3 epochs. The total number of epochs in a year is 2190. 2190 divided by 3 is 730 possible earning periods per year. You will be selected 10.04% of those 730 or 73.32 Epochs. If earnings are 10.92 PRV per epoch, you will earn 800.6 PRV in a year. This equates to an APY of 45.75%.
This does not account for transaction fee earning. Also fluctuations in the price of PRV will also make this more or less actually profitable.

Overall I’m liking my decision to un-provide and stake a validator. I already had a VM server sitting at home so it was easy enough.

Anyone care to share their actual statistics to get an idea of earning potential? Anyone actually earning less than the 28% you can get in Provide?

EDIT: It appears the assumptions I made were not correct. I’m sure it’s possible to estimate the earnings of a validator, but it is rather complicated.

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#2

Your numbers are off, but your percentages are correct. Incog is taking up all but 32 slots currently. They will be releasing them when dynamic shard committee goes live. Earnings are now 9.9 (and change). You minimum is 1 selection in between after 2 epochs. But you may earn between 1-4 times once it is selected. Average is 2-3 times. My average earnings ROI is about 45-50% per month though on a long term scale. Month to month will never match that regularly. I have some nodes over 50 days waiting right now.

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#3

I have 5 nodes, and 4 of them were earning around 15PRV/week for the last 4 months or so, which is a decrease from where they were 8 months ago (when there were fewer validators)… but I had 1 that was earning 6PRV/week… which fell below the 28% by Provide… up until 2 weeks ago, the node has been selected about 5 times and has boosted its earnings up to 13PRV/week (on average for the entire 4 month period)…

So in short, I had 1 vNode of the 5 that was well below the Provide 28% return on PRV, but then it was selected several times and has now averaged back up to be the same (or close) to the others…

Of course though with PRV price appreciation the real return is much more…

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#4

Nope.

There are a total of 256 slots across 8 shard chains. Of these, 176 are “fixed validators” operated by the Incognito Core Team. However … of those 80, only 32 are substituted at the beginning of each epoch: 4 per shard. That means the ~2400 non-fixed validators are competing for 32 slots each epoch.

The random selection to the preparation phase happens halfway through an epoch. The validator will then sync the blockchain in preparation for committee, the remainder of that epoch and the entire next epoch. Thus it’s 1.5 epochs. Picking nits. :wink:

With the exception of rare cases (unstaking, etc), a selected validator will participate in committee for either 2 or 3 consecutive epochs.

You are off by ~60 epochs.

3600 seconds per hour x 24 hours per day x 365 days per year = 31,536,000 seconds per year. Each epoch is 350 blocks every 40 seconds = 14,000 seconds per epoch. Thus 31,536,000 / 14,000 = 2,252.5714 epochs per year.

Committee selection is random. So, no, you wouldn’t be selected 10.04% of the time. I have one pNode which has participated in ~115 epochs in 12 months. Another participated in ~85 epochs in 9 months (which trends to ~115 per 12 months) and a third which is trending to ~120 per 12 months after 4 months.

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#5

Ahhh gotcha, my understanding is a bit off. I’ll try and re-work my math and update the OP. It is funny though how two errors basically offset to give the right answer.

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#6

You have learned quickly. I see many bright & shiny things for you on the horizon.

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#7

PRV gaining 500% I hope.

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#8

To continue the conversation, how likely is it that Incognito removes their validators in April 2021? Will the provide pool rate plunge after they are no longer getting the rewards?

#9

Freeing up the shard spots doesn’t necessarily mean the validators will be shut down. Those validators were already in place before Node Pool/Provide existed. The validators added from the Provide feature are in addition to the ones that hold the shard spots.

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#10

Understood, I should have worded it differently.

How likely is it that Incognito will free up the validator slots that are fixed for them in April 2021?

It does sound like the validators providing the rewards for Provide are separate from the ones that are fixed, so provide should not be affected by the freeing of the slots.

#11

I wouldn’t expect them to be released before June 30th 2021 (aka end of Q2). And the odds for that are not great IMHO.

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#12

I just started hosting a Vnode a little more than a month ago and it has yet to earn anything. I’m considering just unstaking it because if the rewards are so inconsistent It just feels like gambling. I understand that it should even out over time, but what if that takes multiple years? Seems too risky.

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#13

The longest reported period of non-earning is 60 days. I wouldn’t unstake until at least you’ve earned twice. If they are both terribly long then you can evaluate unstaking, but having patience is required for things to even out.

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#14

with the latest influx of nodes to over 2600 it’s not getting better though in short term! I hope the Incognito team cuts the fixed nodes sooner than April tbh

#15

I hope they don’t, unless the system is ready for it and I am sure they will wait for that. Those nodes are put in place for a reason.

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#16

Sure, if there are technical reasons why they need control of such a high amount of nodes we all want them to keep it like this. But I would like to know if that is the case or where I can read more about the reasoning!

#17

read this, especially the part on 2/3 consensus.

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