Presently there are 256 validators selected for each epoch out of 2549. This means you have a 10.04% chance of getting selected for any given epoch provided you are not in a waiting period. There is a waiting period of 2 epoch if you are selected, so this means that you can only earn at most once every 3 epochs. The total number of epochs in a year is 2190. 2190 divided by 3 is 730 possible earning periods per year. You will be selected 10.04% of those 730 or 73.32 Epochs. If earnings are 10.92 PRV per epoch, you will earn 800.6 PRV in a year. This equates to an APY of 45.75%.
This does not account for transaction fee earning. Also fluctuations in the price of PRV will also make this more or less actually profitable.
Overall I’m liking my decision to un-provide and stake a validator. I already had a VM server sitting at home so it was easy enough.
Anyone care to share their actual statistics to get an idea of earning potential? Anyone actually earning less than the 28% you can get in Provide?
EDIT: It appears the assumptions I made were not correct. I’m sure it’s possible to estimate the earnings of a validator, but it is rather complicated.